New Hampshire Real Estate Moving on up….
January 15, 2010 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under Market Trends Report
New Hampshire Real Estate Moving on up…
We certainly ended the year with all indicators showing that the New Hampshire real estate market is moving on up. That was a very nice thing to see especially after a pretty dismal start to the year. We ended being up 6% over 2008 in residential units sold.
Prices declined 10%
While the median sale price continued to decline with a 10% decrease over last years median price of $235,000, when comparing Dec 08 to Dec 09 there was only a 1.9 percent difference. Hopefully that trend will continue. While no one has a crystal ball it does seem as if we’re in the middle of a comeback. Thinking of buying real estate in southern New Hampshire, now is not the time to sit on the fence. Give us a call we’d love to help you find that prefect dream home.
The New Hampshire Association of REALTORS publishes a Market Trend report on a quarterly basis, which is reprinted below with permission.
Congratulations for doing so well in 2009; now for 2010
-By Peter Francese
New Hampshire REALTORS® have every reason to be extremely proud that they not only survived 2009, but in fact sold more homes than in 2008. That was a huge achievement considering the near-record depth of the Great Recession.
During 2009, the bad news just kept coming. New Hampshire’s unemployment rate peaked at 7.2 percent in September – the highest it had been in almost 17 years. There were over 3,400 home foreclosures in 2009, almost as many as the nearly 3,600 in 2008. As if that were not enough, total statewide employment fell by over 15,000 jobs between November 2008 and November 2009.
But that was so last year. What about 2010? Well, the consensus of most economists is that the recovery from this extraordinary recession will get underway this year, although they also predict that the recovery will be slow and that it may take two years for our state to get back to some semblance of normal, whatever that is.
Considering how well home sales went when the recession was in full swing, there is no reason why this year should not be one of recovery. The state unemployment rate is below 7 percent (compared to the 10 percent nationally) and dropping. And new unemployment claims are also falling.
But as we know now, traditional employment is only one indicator of housing demand in New Hampshire. In addition to over 625,000 people with jobs, we also have in excess of 100,000 more who are self-employed. They normally can’t collect an unemployment check, so they are not included in the labor stats. But they’re a critical part of the New Hampshire economy and will play a key role in this recovery.
And let’s not forget the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of state economic activity, which has been rising in New Hampshire since last September. It’s now over 193, still fourth highest in the nation and well above the 154 average for the other New England states.
Another New Hampshire advantage is that we have much healthier local banks than other states. None have been closed by the FDIC, and none are even on their watch list. That’s way better than in the early 1990s and bodes well for home sales in 2010.
All signs point to a reasonably robust recovery this year and next. But our state still has, shall we say, “issues.” We are now the fourth oldest state in terms of median age, and aging too rapidly for us to be complacent about future labor force growth.
One often overlooked aspect of the New Hampshire, however, is our residents’ very high level of educational attainment. Our state is among the nation’s top 10 in the percent of adults with a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Which of course explains why we are also in the top 10 in terms of median household and family income.
Well-educated workers are far more likely to work after age 65. New Hampshire’s Baby Boomers, who will be turning 65 at the rate of approximately 20,000 a year over this decade, are likely to follow that pattern, and many will continue working. That will do a lot to boost future economic growth, as well as second home sales.
Table I below shows that home sales grew in nine of our 10 counties between 2008 and 2009, but that sale price was lower in all 10. Median sale price did rise slightly statewide between November and December, and increased 10 percent for the nearly 2,400 sales in Rockingham County.
Condominium sales, however, did not increase year-over-year statewide, and their sale price was lower almost everywhere. Statewide residential median sale prices were only about 28 percent higher than condo median sale prices, and in three counties condominiums prices were actually higher. This suggests that the recovery in residential sale prices is likely to occur faster than that for condominiums.
Congratulations again for 2009, and may 2010 be even better.
Table I: Residential home sales for 2009 compared to 2008
| County | Units sold 2009 | % change 2008-09 | Median price 2009 | % change 2008-09 |
| Belknap | 634 | 6% | $175,345 | -20% |
| Carroll | 714 | 10% | $185,000 | -10% |
| Cheshire | 598 | -5% | $167,000 | -7% |
| Coos | 344 | 14% | $75,000 | -25% |
| Grafton | 697 | 7% | $169,000 | -13% |
| Hillsborough | 2,947 | 7% | $229,900 | -7% |
| Merrimack | 1,162 | 9% | $198,500 | -12% |
| Rockingham | 2,399 | 4% | $257,900 | -10% |
| Strafford | 965 | 8% | $195,000 | -11% |
| Sullivan | 372 | 3% | $149,750 | -13% |
| Statewide | 10,832 | 6% | $212,000 | -10% |
Table 2: Condominium sales for 2009 compared to 2008
| County | Units sold 2009 | % change 2008-09 | Median price 2009 | % change 2008-09 |
| Belknap | 154 | -1% | $150,000 | -10% |
| Carroll | 123 | -6% | $160,000 | -10% |
| Cheshire | 50 | 28% | $138,700 | -22% |
| Coos | 12 | 100% | $312,500 | 34% |
| Grafton | 278 | 14% | $185,750 | -9% |
| Hillsborough | 992 | 7% | $159,950 | -10% |
| Merrimack | 181 | -20% | $158,000 | -9% |
| Rockingham | 794 | -4% | $177,700 | -9% |
| Strafford | 135 | -19% | $150,000 | -13% |
| Sullivan | 29 | -6% | $252,500 | 3% |
| Statewide | 2,748 | 0% | $165,000 | -8% |
New Hampshire Real Estate Blog
Jay and Monika McGillicuddy
Prudential Verani Realty
2 Main Street Hampstead NH
603-327-0246 direct line
603-434-2377 office
New Hampshire Real Estate Stabilizing
November 30, 2009 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under Market Trends Report
Home prices in New Hampshire are stabilizing and will likely begin to increase in 2010
Peter Francese says in the latest Market Trends report that he prepares for the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS that the “home prices in New Hampshire are stabilizing and will likely begin to increase in 2010.” The general feeling in the field is that he is right. Agents are feeling optimistic that we are indeed starting to climb out of this recession and that better days are ahead. I wish I had a crystal ball, don’t we all, but it sure feels like we’re heading in the right direction.
Below reprinted with permission from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS is Peter’s market trend report… I’d love to know what you think. Comments are always welcome.
The Great Recession is over,
but it will take some time to feel over
—By Peter Francese
According to economists at Moody’s Analytics, what is now being referred to as the Great Recession is technically over. However, the damage from this economic downturn was severe enough that it will take quite a few months until it feels really over to us ordinary people.
There’s a reason this recession has felt so bad: The economists say it has lasted twice as long and was twice as deep as the average of the past 10 recessions the nation has experienced since 1948. The New Hampshire economist Dennis Delay, speaking at a recent New England Economic Partnership conference, said that the recession won’t feel like it is over “until unemployment stops climbing and job growth returns.”
New Hampshire’s unemployment rate, which is now 7.2 percent (well below the national average of 10.2 percent) is not forecasted to rise above 7.8 percent before starting to fall sometime next year. This bodes well for the recovery of New Hampshire’s residential real estate values, which may have already begun to rise.
During the first five months of this year, for example, residential home sales were below last year. But year-over-year the number of homes sold has risen in four out of the past five months (see Table I below). Overall, for the first 10 months of 2009 home sales edged up 0.3 percent over the same period last year.
Median home prices statewide were still about 7 percent below October of 2008, but the difference is narrowing from monthly numbers that earlier this year ranged between 10 and 20 percent below 2008. This trend indicates that home prices in New Hampshire are stabilizing and will likely begin to increase in 2010.
The expanded home buyer tax credits will almost certainly have a positive effect on home sales and values in the next several months. Also, as home prices stabilize, that will reduce any perceived risk on the part of potential home buyers and encourage lenders to finance more purchases.
New Hampshire has been considerably more fortunate with regard to home prices than many other states. Median home prices statewide are expected to bottom out in 2010 at between 20 and 25 percent below their 2005 peak. Given the worst recession in 60 years, that’s really something to be pleased about. Several other states have seen home prices fall 50 percent or more from their peak in 2005.
Every REALTOR® in our state, as well as every lender or potential home buyer, should know this: The recession is over, but the speed of recovery here depends in large part on the real New Hampshire advantage. It has certainly mitigated this recession’s bad effects and will be extremely important to our recovery.
Assuming it will be maintained, real estate values will recover more quickly and more solidly than anywhere else in this region, and perhaps most other places in the nation.
Table I shows that residential home sales are likely to be about the same as last year, just above 10,000 units, and at a median sale price that will be within 10 percent of 2008.
Table I shows residential home sales and median sale prices for first 10 months of 2009.
2009
Units sold % change 2008-09 Median sale price % change 2008-09
Jan 453 -15% $200,000 -17%
Feb 505 -13% $184,900 -20%
Mar 703 9% $200,000 -14%
Apr 739 -11% $204,900 -15%
May 881 -6% $210,000 -13%
Jun 1,151 1% $225,000 -12%
Jul 1,169 6% $220,000 -10%
Aug 1,096 4% $222,000 -7%
Sep 979 -3% $214,900 -8%
Oct 1,083 8% $210,000 -7%
YTD 8,857 0.3% $210,000 -7%
Table II shows that in October, residential unit sales rose above last year’s for seven of the state’s 10 counties, and median sale price increased 9 percent in Belknap County, where nearly one-third of dwelling units are second homes. Condominium sales were also strong in October, when unit sales jumped 23 percent above October of last year at a median sale price just $100 below last year’s $170,000.
Units sold % change 2008-09 Median sale price % change 2008-09
Belknap 66 6% $192,875 9%
Carroll 79 -2% $190,000 -12%
Cheshire 52 -2% $160,450 -4%
Coos 41 8% $89,000 -11%
Grafton 76 19% $174,950 -6%
Hillsborough 283 10% $224,000 -9%
Merrimack 125 18% $189,000 -12%
Rockingham 230 9% $255,000 -4%
Strafford 105 22% $194,900 -10%
Sullivan 26 -40% $150,000 -3%
Statewide 1,083 8% $210,000 -7%
Source: NNEREN
NH Market Trends report
June 27, 2009 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under General R.E. Information, Market Trends Report
Southern NH Real Estate is on fire…
This is an interesting article published by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS that was written by Peter Francese. It talks about the aging of New Hampshire and the impact that has on home sales. It also covers April’s NH Market Trend Report. I’m a little bit late on reprinting it for you but trust me when I say the Southern NH real estate market has been very buys! It’s like someone just lit a fire under the real estate market.
Yeah baby …we’re getting older
Our state’s residents are changing, and it may impact home sales
—By Peter Francese
Well, we finally did it. According to the latest Census Bureau estimates, New Hampshire is now tied with Florida for the distinction of being the fourth oldest state in the nation. Our median age went over 40 years old for the first time ever.Here’s the 2008 top four lineup: Maine at 42.0, Vermont at 41.2, West Virginia at 40.6 followed by New Hampshire and Florida at 40.2 years old. New Hampshire’s median age has risen three years since 2000, which is twice the nationwide increase of 1.5 years.
Chart I below shows why this is happening. From 2000 to 2008, New Hampshire’s total population increased 6 percent, but in the same period the segment 55 to 64 jumped 50 percent, while the number of school-age children ages 5 to 17 declined by 7 percent.
The chart below also shows that an age turnaround may be underway. The 13 percent rise in the 18 to 29 age group means that, if these young adults stay in New Hampshire, the number of families with children is likely to increase in the future and the state’s median age may stabilize or conceivably fall to a somewhat younger age.
Source: US Census Bureau
These changes may mean an increase in demand for second homes and retirement homes for older residents and starter homes for the youngest families. But it may mean less demand for trading-up homes because there will be a smaller number of families with older children who sometimes purchase larger or more suitable homes.
Over the next five to 10 years, we could see some Baby Boomer empty-nesters desiring to sell their big homes and buy smaller homes as they approach retirement. But there’s growing evidence that Baby Boomers will delay retirement, so they may want to keep that larger home and use the extra space for a home office or two. In any case, overall population growth is most likely to be slower than in past decades.
Survey results and April sales data
Results from the NHAR monthly survey that many of you so kindly fill out show that 42 percent of recent homebuyers were young families and 44 percent of homebuyers were first time homebuyers. The survey results also show that 30 percent of buyers came from out of state, with a solid majority of those coming from Massachusetts.
The survey also shows that while three-quarters of buyers were purchasing a primary home, about one in four of them were buying a second home or purchasing it for investment purposes.
It’s understandable that investors would be making an appearance considering that the median sales price in April was below $200,000 in eight of 10 NH counties. But it is also noteworthy that between March and April of this year, the number of homes sold increased in eight counties as well.
Compared to April of 2008, however, residential unit sales are off 11 percent statewide, and median sale price is down 15 percent. (Please see tables below for county detail.)
On a year-to-date basis, homes sold are down just 7 percent compared to last year, but median selling price was 16 percent below the first four months of 2008.
There is substantial variation by county, however. Compared to 2008 residential unit sales have increased in Belknap, Grafton, Merrimack and Sullivan counties despite declining sales elsewhere. But the sales in Grafton and Belknap counties came at a sharp discount compared to most other New Hampshire counties.
Table 1: Residential (non-condo) unit sales for April 2009
Table II: Cumulative residential (non-condo) unit sales January-April 2009
County
Units sold
April ‘09
% change
2008-09Median price
April ‘09
% change
2008-09Belknap 42 8% $183,500 -27% Carroll 44 -8% $177,000 -3% Cheshire 45 -18% $167,000 -7% Coos 20 -38% $37,450 -54% Grafton 46 10% $139,000 -26% Hillsborough 192 -21% $221,875 -13% Merrimack 76 9% $199,500 -16% Rockingham 180 -6% $265,250 -13% Strafford 60 -24% $180,500 -17% Sullivan 34 21% $126,000 -22% Statewide 739 -11% $204,900 -15% Table II: Cumulative residential (non-condo) unit sales January-April 2009
County Units sold
Jan-April ‘09% change
2008-09Median price
Jan-April ‘09% change
2008-09Belknap 145 -3% $167,507 -22% Carroll 159 -4% $173,500 -10% Cheshire 134 -7% $165,200 -8% Coos 81 7% $59,000 -45% Grafton 147 -7% $140,000 -30% Hillsborough 655 -7% $220,000 -12% Merrimack 240 -6% $190,850 -14% Rockingham 546 -10% $250,000 -13% Strafford 211 -10% $180,000 -17% Sullivan 96 -2% $133,250 -17% Statewide 2,414 -7% $197,500 -16% Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network
NH Market Trend report ~ Spring is here, so are the buyers
April 4, 2009 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under Market Trends Report
Spring is definitely here and from my real estate perspective so are buyers!
February and March brought us an increase in activity. While winter was most definitely cold and dark in my Southern NH real estate world, the heat has been turned on and the sun is shining. Many buyers who have been on the fence have suddenly jumped off and started to do more than simply look at real estate, they’ve started to buy real estate.
Reprinted below is the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS market trend report for Jan and Feb 2009.
Spring is coming, with more buyers
-By Peter Francese
Before we can look forward we have to look back, even if we would rather not. During the first two months of this year, fewer than 1,000 residential units were sold and year-to-date sales volume ($214 million, not including condominiums) was half of what it was three years ago. Condominium sales volume ($39 million) was 70 percent lower than in 2006.
Whatever the weather, this could turn out to be the coldest winter on record for New Hampshire Realtors. We can only imagine how bad it must be in other states where the economy is in so much worse shape than it is here in the Granite State.
Our state has by far the lowest unemployment rate in New England (See Chart I) and one of the 10 lowest rates in the nation. Our state also has the fourth highest index of economic activity, according to the Federal Reserve (See Chart II). The problem, in terms of consumer confidence, is that these indicators of the substantially better economic conditions here in New Hampshire are unknown, except for a few savvy real estate investors.
Tables I and II below show the county level details of home sales from NNEREN for the first two months of this year. But the last column on Chart I also shows a very important indicator: the ratio of median home value to median household income.
Historically that number, which is one measure of general housing affordability, has usually been at 4.0 or below. When it rises above 4.0, too many buyers are not able to purchase a home. When it returns to 4.0 or below, it signals a time when many more potential buyers will think that a home they would like to buy is within their reach.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Potential buyers, however, must also have some level of confidence that better economic times are in the near future. And lenders need to feel more confident, too. So far, that confidence has not shown itself. But early believers in its imminent return will be able to buy one, or maybe even two, very reasonably priced homes.
What is important to keep in mind, however, is that the median sales price figures in tables I and II below are very heavily influenced by foreclosed and short sales. While it is true that home foreclosures are less than one percent of all owned homes in New Hampshire, they can be, and often are, a much larger fraction of all sales in a county, particularly when there are so few transactions. This distorts the perception of home values.
When the number of foreclosures starts to decline, which it must do fairly soon, then home prices will at least stabilize and lenders will feel more comfortable writing mortgages. But in the meantime, it would be helpful if we could separate out foreclosure sales from all others.
We can only do that from data collected on the New Hampshire Realtor survey, which you can fill out for each transaction. So please go to the survey site by clicking here and answer a few quick questions to tell us about your recent sales. We will report the results next month.
Table I: Residential (non-condo) unit sales for Feb. 2009 and income/price ratio
| County | Units sold |
% change | Median price | % change | Income to |
| Feb. ‘09 | 2008-09 | Feb. 2009 | 2008-09 | price ratio | |
| Belknap | 35 | 17% | $145,000 | -21% | 4.1 |
| Carroll | 44 | 26% | $157,450 | -20% | 4 |
| Cheshire | 27 | -7% | $159,000 | 6% | 3.3 |
| Coos | 14 | -26% | $58,500 | -53% | 2.4 |
| Grafton | 23 | -48% | $137,000 | -31% | 3.8 |
| Hillsborough | 146 | 11% | $199,500 | -24% | 3.7 |
| Merrimack | 49 | -22% | $187,000 | -15% | 3.8 |
| Rockingham | 103 | -31% | $241,000 | -15% | 3.9 |
| Strafford | 45 | -20% | $185,000 | -13% | 3.9 |
| Sullivan | 19 | -24% | $133,500 | -26% | 3.6 |
| Statewide | 505 | -14% | $184,900 | -20% | 3.8 |
Table II: Residential (non-condo) unit sales for first two months of 2009
| County | Units sold | % change | Median price | % change2 |
| YTD ‘09 | 2008-09 | YTD 2009 | 2008-09 | |
| Belknap | 59 | 0% | $160,000 | -27% |
| Carroll | 75 | 7% | $155, 000 | -22% |
| Cheshire | 50 | -9% | $167,650 | 12% |
| Coos | 36 | 20% | $58,000 | -54% |
| Grafton | 57 | -25% | $140,000 | -29% |
| Hillsborough | 274 | -1% | $215,000 | -16% |
| Merrimack | 88 | -36% | $197,950 | -10% |
| Rockingham | 193 | -29% | $240,000 | -16% |
| Strafford | 94 | 1% | $178,750 | -17% |
| Sullivan | 35 | -30% | $145,000 | -8% |
| Statewide | 961 | -14% | $190,000 | -19% |
Source: NNEREN and US Census Bureau household income estimates
Oh the Real Estate Market has been frightful…
December 23, 2008 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under Market Trends Report
New Hampshire November 2008 Market Trends report.
This months market report by Demographer Peter Francese was just released by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS and as always Peter Francese calls it the way he sees it. “Say goodbye to a frightful 2008 and hello to a better 2009″… I sure hope he is right because for many 2008 was frightful and it would be nice if 2009 is delightful although I’d settle for better.
The Market Trend report is reprinted with permission from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS and is ©Copyrighted by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Say goodbye to a frightful 2008 and hello to a better 2009
-by Peter Francese
The mother of all ice storms took out the electricity for well over half of all New Hampshire homes on December 12 and cost a great many homeowners and businesses dearly. The loss of power at home and at work seemed to many as the final insult of what has been a year of losses in jobs, the stock market and housing.
Of all the owner occupied homes in our state, less than 1 percent are in foreclosure.
The uncertainty about the economic outlook combined with the steady stream of bad news at the national level has made it hard to be happy during this holiday season, or optimistic about the future. Yes, from an economic point of view our state has fared much better than most, but it sure doesn’t feel like it.
Before we put 2008 behind us, which is where it belongs, let’s look at what happened in out state so we can think about how best to move on to what we believe will be a better year in 2009. Projecting forward a month, it looks like New Hampshire Realtors will have sold about 10,000 residences and 2,700 condominiums during 2008. It’s been over 10 years since that few units were sold here. Residential sales for 2008 are projected to be down almost 20 percent from 2007, but condo sales may be 35 percent below their 2007 numbers.
That uniquely large multi-year deterioration in home sales has resulted in a $3 billion loss of annual sales volume since 2005, prompting the question: What is likely to happen next year to turn around this slide in home sales? The short answer is lower interest rates and fewer foreclosures. Long time Seacoast Realtor Betty LaBranche would like to see interest rates go below 4 percent, at least for a few months. More about rates below.
Regarding foreclosures, The New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority’s latest report estimates that by the end of this year nearly 3,600 New Hampshire homes will be foreclosed on, up 72 percent from about 2,100 in 2007. Shocking, huh? Well, that 2008 number is only 1.3 percent (about 1 in every 75) of the approximately 270,000 owned dwelling in New Hampshire with a mortgage. But 30 percent of New Hampshire owned homes (a little over 100,000 homes) have no mortgage at all. So of all the owner occupied homes in our state, less than 1 percent are in foreclosure.
The problem for New Hampshire Realtors is that 3,600 is 16 percent (or 1 out of every 6) of the approximately 22,000 new listings on NNEREN so far this year. (That pretty much confirms our October survey results showing 18 percent of sales due to a foreclosure. )
Perspective is crucial if we are going to deal constructively with this issue.
Perhaps the best news is the lowering of the Fed funds rate to near zero, which means that we are likely to see loan rates in the 4 to 5 percent range by early spring, or even below 4 percent if Betty LaBranche gets her wish. But that presumes mortgage lenders want to actually provide the funds to would-be home buyers. The intensely risk-averse behavior on the part of lenders (which is somewhat understandable) will have to be replaced with more confidence that the borrower is good for the money.
This is, without doubt, the nastiest recession any of us have ever witnessed. The most precious commodity at such a time is confidence that things will be better in the future. The one thing New Hampshire Realtors can have confidence in is that our state is in the best economic position of any New England state and so is likely to recover sooner. Our employment growth rate (Chart I) is the highest and our unemployment rate (Chart II) is the lowest in the region, plus our index of economic activity (Chart III) is fourth highest in the nation.
However, despite all that, the table below shows pretty clearly that economic decline combined with the financial meltdown crippled November sales particularly badly in Grafton and Sullivan counties. But in the face of the gloomy economic outlook, prices held up the best in Hillsborough and Strafford counties.
Best holiday wishes to all my readers and here’s hoping for a more uplifting 2009.
November 2008 NH residential (non-condominium) sales
| County | Units | % change 2007-08 | Median | % change | YTD units | % change 2007-08 |
| sold | price | 2007-08 | sold | |||
| Belknap | 35 | -29% | $169,900 | -31% | 545 | -20% |
| Carroll | 41 | -25% | $185,000 | -25% | 598 | -14% |
| Cheshire | 29 | -38% | $173,700 | -12% | 589 | -10% |
| Coos | 25 | -11% | $84,800 | -30% | 283 | -12% |
| Grafton | 34 | -46% | $167,500 | -24% | 617 | -25% |
| Hillsborough | 184 | -20% | $232,500 | -10% | 2,571 | -13% |
| Merrimack | 77 | -21% | $207,300 | -20% | 988 | -23% |
| Rockingham | 164 | -17% | $255,850 | -15% | 2,146 | -12% |
| Strafford | 55 | -15% | $212,700 | -10% | 821 | -19% |
| Sullivan | 19 | -44% | $180,000 | -42% | 328 | -26% |
| Statewide | 663 | -23% | $215,000 | -17% | 9,486 | -16% |
Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN). Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.
|
The Real Estate Market Trends newsletter is provided for the benefit of the members of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. ©Copyright 2007 New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
|
|
|
NH Real Estate market trends report…here is what we can do
November 26, 2008 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under Market Trends Report
October 2008 Market Trends Report
I’ve often said that I wish I had a crystal ball but somehow even without one…we knew this…
Peter Francese titled this months real estate market trend report “What do we do now” ….I say for starters please read this article carefully and understand that investing in a home is still much better than investing in stocks and offers a greater return. Peter Francese says it will be some months before we see an improvement and he makes comparisons to Best Buy and Circuit City. He also stresses that a greater web presence will be required to make an impact in this market. Things like multiple virtual tours, video tours and greater details will be needed in your listings. I don’t mind telling you that makes me feel real good.
Jay and I create videos, do multiple virtual tours and individual weblogs for ALL of our listings. We believe in giving our sellers all the tools we can and we know Internet marketing is the way to go. I can’t believe how many homes are listed in the MLS by our so called competition that don’t have a virtual tour or even multiple pictures. Some don’t even have any pictures. If your home is currently on the market do yourself a big favor and check out how your home is presented in the MLS and on the Internet. If your agent does not have a virtual tour up and at least 12 pictures in MLS…it’s time to think about switching agents! You can’t afford not to…
An example of a few of our marketing efforts:
12DixonLane.com , 9CaseyRoad.com and NHWaterfronthomesforsale.com
The market trend report below is reprinted with permission from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS
What do we do Now?
-by Peter Francese
Since October of 2007, the value of an index fund based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 40 percent. But a great many stock funds are down at least 50 percent from a year ago, and hardly anyone is suggesting that this is the bottom.
PLEASE don’t forget to complete our survey regarding home buyers. The link is below, and here.
By comparison from October of 2007 to this past October, the median sale price of a New Hampshire residence (not including condominiums) has fallen just 13 percent. All homeowners can rightly be distressed about the drop in home prices in our state, but over the past year it’s pretty clear which was the better investment.
Considering the sharp drop in retail sales and the general economic situation, it’s likely to be some months before consumer confidence climbs up from its all-time low point. The president of Best Buy recently said, “In my 42 years of retailing, we’ve never seen such difficult times for the consumer. People are making dramatic changes in how much they spend, and we’re not immune from those forces.”
The fact that, despite their problems, Best Buy is so much better off than their chief competitor, Circuit City, which has filed for bankruptcy, offers some insight for REALTORS®. The biggest difference between those firms is that Best Buy invested a great deal more in their website, and they invested more heavily to understand how customers for electronic goods were changing.
There is no doubt that this is an extraordinarily difficult time for New Hampshire REALTORS®. But it is my belief that when the economy recovers, the most successful ones will be those who invested in upgrading their website and increasing their knowledge of today’s home buyers.
Results from the monthly survey which we ask you to complete will provide more information about home buyers (October survey results are described below).
But improving your website really requires some technical assistance. Here are three suggestions for the next time you upgrade your site:
1. Make the print bigger. More of the people visiting your site are older and have trouble reading small print.
2. Use as many virtual tours or video tours of homes as you budget permits. More site visitors will expect to see some type of video presentation rather than just small still photos.
3. Describe in more detail a home’s benefits in terms that matter to prospective buyers. More buyers, for example, want to know if it has broadband access, how close it is to town or if it’s handicap accessible and/or energy efficient.
Almost a thousand homes were sold in our state in October, according to NNEREN, about 1 percent more than in October 2007. But we only have 265 completed surveys, a 27 percent response rate. That’s much better that the 10 percent of the previous month, but still not high enough to say that the sample is representative. The more responses we get, the more useful it will be to you, so please take a moment to go to the website below and take just a few minutes to tell us about the homes you sold in the past month.
Survey site: click here.
Here are some results from the October survey of New Hampshire REALTORS®:
• 70 percent of homes sold were single family dwellings; only 15 percent were condos
• 18 percent of sales were due to foreclosure and 12 percent of sales were new construction
• 26 percent of buyers were from out-of-state, about a third of them from Mass.
• 78 percent of homes were purchased for a primary home, and 10 percent for second home
• 37 percent of buyers were first time home buyers and 12 percent were age 65 or older
• 35 percent of buyers were families with kids, 25 percent of buyers were single people
The table below shows that while unit sales were up in several counties, prices were between 12 percent and 33 percent below last year everywhere except Carroll County. It’s also taking longer (4.6 months) to sell a residential unit and over five months to sell the average condominium.
The median condominium sale price in October was only 25 percent below the median residential unit sale price. That relatively small difference makes it more difficult to sell a condominium (YTD condo sales are 34 percent below same period last year). That suggests condo prices may go lower in future months.
October 2008 NH residential (non-condominium) sales
| County | Units Sold | % change 2007-08 | Median price | % change 2007-08 | YTD units Sold | % change 2007-08 |
| Belknap | 62 | 0% | $176,250 | -33% | 510 | -19% |
| Carroll | 82 | 34% | $215,000 | 2% | 557 | -13% |
| Cheshire | 53 | -4% | $166,900 | -17% | 560 | -8% |
| Coos | 38 | -3% | $100,000 | -17% | 259 | -12% |
| Grafton | 64 | -28% | $185,200 | -21% | 582 | -23% |
| Hillsborough | 254 | 18% | $245,000 | -12% | 2,384 | -13% |
| Merrimack | 104 | -15% | $215,000 | -20% | 909 | -23% |
| Rockingham | 205 | 3% | $266,000 | -15% | 1,981 | -11% |
| Strafford | 84 | 1% | $220,450 | -14% | 766 | -19% |
| Sullivan | 43 | -10% | $155,000 | -12% | 309 | -25% |
| Statewide | 989 | 1% | $226,000 | -13% | 8,817 | -16% |
Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN). Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.
Finally, here are a couple of economic indicators just published by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank. The New Hampshire unemployment rate last September was just 4.1 percent. That’s by far the lowest in this region and well below the New England-wide rate of 5.7 percent and the national rate of 6.1 percent.
Our state’s September index of economic activity was 198.7, which is again the highest in this region and 20 percent above the national index of 159.3. Since September of last year, New Hampshire’s index has risen by 2.9 points compared to a one point rise for the nation. By contrast, Rhode Island’s September index of economic activity was just 156.6, and that was nearly six points below September of last year.
