New Hampshire September Real Estate Market Trends

The New Hampshire Association of REALTORS recently published their September Market Trends report and as usual Peter Francese does a fantastic job with the report. I’ve re-printed here with permission of NHAR. It is some fascinating reading…especially if you’re a New Hampshire home owner or buyer.

Buyers’ Needs are Changing
-by Peter Francese
During the past six years, there’s been a subtle shift among New Hampshire homes: A greater percentage are owner-occupied, fewer homes are rented, and more are occupied only seasonally or part of the time. This shift has important implications for REALTORS®, as it signifies a shift in types of buyers and sellers.

Fewer renters mean that more buyers have the obstacle of selling their existing home first. In today’s weak market, that can be a deal-breaker. Fewer renters may also create a downward pressure on condominium prices in the future, because owners may have a more difficult time renting them. That hasn’t happened yet: Average condo prices YTD statewide are 2 percent above the first nine months of last year, even though 10 percent fewer condominiums were sold, according to the Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN).

The fastest growing housing unit type in New Hampshire is one classified as “vacant.” The Census Bureau’s 2006 survey counted 590,000 dwelling units in our state, but only half a million (504,500) were occupied year-round. There are now an estimated 85,300 dwelling units classified as “vacant,” almost 80 percent of which are second homes.

Chart I below shows that over three-fifths of all dwellings are owner-occupied, less that one in four are rented, and 14.5 percent are vacant (meaning not occupied year-round). Northern New England has among the highest percentage of vacant dwellings in the nation. Eighteen percent of Vermont’s and nearly 21 percent of Maine’s dwelling were vacant, compared to less than 10 percent for each of the southern New England states.

If we assume that seasonal or otherwise temporarily occupied homes come on the market at the same rate as year-round homes, then approximately one in every eight homes for sale statewide will be purchased by someone who does not intend to make it their primary home. For condominiums, that fraction is almost certainly bigger. If a growing number of buyers will be coming from out of state, then having an up-to-date, attractive and truly interactive website is critically important.

Since 2000, the number of year-round owner occupied units in New Hampshire has risen by 10 percent compared to an 18 percent jump in vacant units and a 2 percent decline in rented units. The decline in rented units is partly a result of the conversion of previously rented units to condominiums, but it is mainly due to the high out-migration of young adults from our states.

Most renters in New Hampshire are under age 45, and since the year 2000 our state has lost thousands of these younger people, so it should not be a surprise that the number of rented units has declined. So far, the drop in demand for rental units hasn’t had much impact on rents. According to the New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority, median gross rent continues to rise statewide between 4 and 5 percent per year.

Source: Census Bureau American Community Survey
Turning now to the NNEREN data for September, we see that during the first nine months of this year the average price of residential units statewide, excluding condos, is still holding quite steady with a decline of only 1 percent, or $3,000 on an average price that’s over $306,000.

Considering what’s going on in many other parts of the nation, where double-digit price declines are the norm, this month’s data is something to celebrate about – particularly in those three counties (Belknap, Coos and Sullivan) where home prices so far this year are higher than last year.

Nevertheless, unit sales are significantly below last year in every county. An average of 100 fewer homes were sold statewide each month this year compared to the same period last year, which meant $34 million less volume each month. Note that the state’s three biggest counties, with 59 percent of the home sales, had the smallest declines.

[TABLE=2]
Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN). Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.

NH Real Estate Professionals Jay and Monika McGillicuddy

Jay and Monika McGillicuddy, covering southern NH and the Seacoast area. If you’re thinking of selling or buying a southern NH or Seacoast area home give us a call…we’d love to help make your home ownership dreams come true.
Jay and Monika McGillicuddy, NH REALTORS

603-944-9172 direct

E-mail Jay and Monika

Prudential Verani Realty

603-926-3648 office