September NH Market Trend Report…

November 2, 2008 by Monika McGillicuddy
Filed under General R.E. Information, Market Trends Report

Bad Economic News Makes Selling Anything Harder

It sure does but last I heard oil was below 65.00 a barrel..Yippee!

This months market report by Demographer Peter Francese was released by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS and the title really says it all. Or does it… I’ll let you be the judge. But keep this bit of info in mind, real estate is local even in NH AND Single family home sales in Hampstead NH are up 18 % as of today compared to last October but prices on average are down 6% from last year with the median prices being down 9% over last year. Up 18% for Hampstead is pretty good especially since Hampstead was pretty hard hit with declining values and sales volume.

Bad Economic News Makes Selling Anything Harder (Reprinted with permission from NHAR)

By Peter Francese

The economic outlook could hardly get much worse. Yet every one of us working stiffs still has to get out of bed every morning and try to conduct some business. There’s little doubt that the remainder of this year and next year will be a difficult one for many businesses, including real estate.

New Hampshire’s annual median family income in 2007 was nearly $75,000 – fifth highest in the nation.

So here are three ideas that may brighten up your mood, and perhaps even your office wall:
1. The national economy may be ailing, but New Hampshire is much healthier.
2. New Hampshire is an affluent state with multiple demands for housing.
3. Granite State home prices are returning to historic relationship with income.

Here are the details:
Item One: The number of non-farm jobs in the United States declined 0.2 percent from August 2007 to August 2008, but increased 0.8 percent in New Hampshire – by far the highest growth rate in New England (see Chart I). The Granite State unemployment rate in August was only 4.2 percent, compared to 6.2 percent for the nation and 5.7 percent for New England.
Also, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s index of economic activity for New Hampshire was 198.6, which was third highest in the nation, a full 25 percent higher than the national index of 159.3, and way above the average index 159.7 for the other states in this region. Finally, according to RealtyTrac, less than 1 percent of New Hampshire homes are in foreclosure. Clearly our state is better positioned than nearly all other states to weather this economic downturn.
Item Two: New Hampshire’s annual median family income in 2007 was nearly $75,000 – fifth highest in the nation. One reason for such high income is that nearly 40 percent of our state’s workforce has a college degree. Higher income and higher educational attainment increases one’s ability to get financing and buy a home.
But it’s not only workers who buy homes in the Granite State. Retirees are attracted to our state in large numbers, and many of them are buying homes. Finally, there is significant buyer activity from those who want a second or vacation home. We are third in the nation in the percent of homes in that latter category.
Item Three: The year-to-date median home price in New Hampshire through September was $240,000. I estimate that in 2008, the median household income (which includes both families and single individuals) was about $64,000. That means the home price to income ratio is now 3.75, which is where it was before home prices started to rise in the 2001-02 period. That ratio is even lower in some New Hampshire counties.
Bottom line: A New Hampshire home is a fine long-term investment.

The two tables below show both residential and condominium sales for last month and year-to-date through September. Condominiums sales have fallen far faster than residential sales (which actually edged up 3 percent in September), and condos are taking an average of a month longer to sell.
Part of the reason may be that the median condo price is now 77 percent of the median residential unit price. That’s probably a record small spread between house and condo prices. It means that for an average of only 23 percent more, a buyer can get a home on a lot and not have condo fees or age restrictions.
That may explain why New Hampshire condominium sales year-to-date are down 36 percent versus a 17 percent drop for residential units. Year-over-year residential unit median sale prices are down 8 percent statewide, while condo median sale prices are off just 4 percent, which suggests that condo prices may drop further than residential in the near term.

Residential
County	Sept Sales	% change 2007-08	Median Price	% change 2007-08	YTD Sales	% change 2007-08
Belknap	63	-23%	$279,000	24%	448	-21%
Carroll	59	-25%	$198,000	-19%	475	-18%
Cheshire	74	21%	$192,500	-3%	507	-9%
Coos	33	3%	$115,000	-12%	221	-14%
Grafton	67	6%	$215,000	2%	518	-22%
Hillsborough	259	13%	$244,000	-11%	2,134	-15%
Merrimack	107	-9%	$220,000	-7%	805	-24%
Rockingham	222	17%	$270,000	-11%	1,779	-13%
Strafford	97	20%	$205,000	-9%	682	-22%
Sullivan	25	-46%	$200,000	4%	266	-27%
Statewide	1,006	3%	$232,500	-8%	7,835	-17%

Condominium
Belknap	25	39%	$145,000	-4%	117	-37%
Carroll	10	-33%	$176,500	-3%	97	-13%
Cheshire	5	-17%	$193,000	29%	32	-42%
Coos	0	-100%	$0	-100%	2	-67%
Grafton	24	-23%	$225,000	7%	192	-27%
Hillsborough	89	-18%	$175,000	-2%	721	-44%
Merrimack	20	-29%	$206,530	-7%	183	-42%
Rockingham	69	-36%	$202,000	-4%	655	-29%
Strafford	14	-13%	$149,225	4%	138	-41%
Sullivan	4	-20%	$340,000	21%	24	-4%
Statewide	260	-23%	$178,950	-4%	2,161	-36%

The Real Estate Market Trends newsletter is provided for the benefit of the members of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. ©Copyright 2007 New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Peter Francese is the Demographic Advisor to the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®.