New Hampshire Real Estate Moving on up….

New Hampshire Real Estate Moving on up…

We certainly ended the year with all indicators showing that the New Hampshire real estate market is moving on up.  That was a very nice thing to see especially after a pretty dismal start to the year. We ended being up 6% over 2008 in residential units sold.

Prices declined 10%

While the median sale price continued to decline with a 10% decrease over last years median price of $235,000, when comparing Dec 08 to Dec 09 there was only a 1.9 percent difference. Hopefully that trend will continue.  While no one has a crystal ball it does seem as if we’re in the middle of a comeback. Thinking of buying real estate in southern New Hampshire, now is not the time to sit on the fence. Give us a call we’d love to help you find that prefect dream home.

The New Hampshire Association of REALTORS publishes a Market Trend report on a quarterly basis, which is reprinted below with permission.

Congratulations for doing so well in 2009; now for 2010

-By Peter Francese

New Hampshire REALTORS® have every reason to be extremely proud that they not only survived 2009, but in fact sold more homes than in 2008. That was a huge achievement considering the near-record depth of the Great Recession.

During 2009, the bad news just kept coming. New Hampshire’s unemployment rate peaked at 7.2 percent in September – the highest it had been in almost 17 years. There were over 3,400 home foreclosures in 2009, almost as many as the nearly 3,600 in 2008. As if that were not enough, total statewide employment fell by over 15,000 jobs between November 2008 and November 2009.

But that was so last year. What about 2010? Well, the consensus of most economists is that the recovery from this extraordinary recession will get underway this year, although they also predict that the recovery will be slow and that it may take two years for our state to get back to some semblance of normal, whatever that is.

Considering how well home sales went when the recession was in full swing, there is no reason why this year should not be one of recovery. The state unemployment rate is below 7 percent (compared to the 10 percent nationally) and dropping. And new unemployment claims are also falling.

But as we know now, traditional employment is only one indicator of housing demand in New Hampshire. In addition to over 625,000 people with jobs, we also have in excess of 100,000 more who are self-employed. They normally can’t collect an unemployment check, so they are not included in the labor stats. But they’re a critical part of the New Hampshire economy and will play a key role in this recovery.

And let’s not forget the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of state economic activity, which has been rising in New Hampshire since last September. It’s now over 193, still fourth highest in the nation and well above the 154 average for the other New England states.

Another New Hampshire advantage is that we have much healthier local banks than other states. None have been closed by the FDIC, and none are even on their watch list. That’s way better than in the early 1990s and bodes well for home sales in 2010.

All signs point to a reasonably robust recovery this year and next. But our state still has, shall we say, “issues.” We are now the fourth oldest state in terms of median age, and aging too rapidly for us to be complacent about future labor force growth.

One often overlooked aspect of the New Hampshire, however, is our residents’ very high level of educational attainment. Our state is among the nation’s top 10 in the percent of adults with a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Which of course explains why we are also in the top 10 in terms of median household and family income.

Well-educated workers are far more likely to work after age 65. New Hampshire’s Baby Boomers, who will be turning 65 at the rate of approximately 20,000 a year over this decade, are likely to follow that pattern, and many will continue working. That will do a lot to boost future economic growth, as well as second home sales.

Table I below shows that home sales grew in nine of our 10 counties between 2008 and 2009, but that sale price was lower in all 10. Median sale price did rise slightly statewide between November and December, and increased 10 percent for the nearly 2,400 sales in Rockingham County.

Condominium sales, however, did not increase year-over-year statewide, and their sale price was lower almost everywhere. Statewide residential median sale prices were only about 28 percent higher than condo median sale prices, and in three counties condominiums prices were actually higher. This suggests that the recovery in residential sale prices is likely to occur faster than that for condominiums.

Congratulations again for 2009, and may 2010 be even better.

Table I: Residential home sales for 2009 compared to 2008

County	Units sold 2009	% change 2008-09	Median price 2009	% change 2008-09
Belknap	634	6%	$175,345	-20%
Carroll	714	10%	$185,000	-10%
Cheshire	598	-5%	$167,000	-7%
Coos	344	14%	$75,000	-25%
Grafton	697	7%	$169,000	-13%
Hillsborough	2,947	7%	$229,900	-7%
Merrimack	1,162	9%	$198,500	-12%
Rockingham	2,399	4%	$257,900	-10%
Strafford	965	8%	$195,000	-11%
Sullivan	372	3%	$149,750	-13%
Statewide	10,832	6%	$212,000	-10%

Table 2: Condominium sales for 2009 compared to 2008

County	Units sold 2009	% change 2008-09	Median price 2009	% change 2008-09
Belknap	154	-1%	$150,000	-10%
Carroll	123	-6%	$160,000	-10%
Cheshire	50	28%	$138,700	-22%
Coos	12	100%	$312,500	34%
Grafton	278	14%	$185,750	-9%
Hillsborough	992	7%	$159,950	-10%
Merrimack	181	-20%	$158,000	-9%
Rockingham	794	-4%	$177,700	-9%
Strafford	135	-19%	$150,000	-13%
Sullivan	29	-6%	$252,500	3%
Statewide	2,748	0%	$165,000	-8%



New Hampshire Real Estate Blog

Jay and Monika McGillicuddy

Prudential Verani Realty

2 Main Street Hampstead NH

603-327-0246 direct line

603-434-2377 office

New Hampshire Real Estate Stabilizing

Home prices in New Hampshire are stabilizing and will likely begin to increase in 2010

Peter Francese says in the latest Market Trends report that he prepares for the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS that the “home prices in New Hampshire are stabilizing and will likely begin to increase in 2010.”  The general feeling in the field is that he is right. Agents are feeling optimistic that we are indeed starting to climb out of this recession and that better days are ahead. I wish I had a crystal ball, don’t we all, but it sure feels like we’re heading in the right direction.

Below reprinted with permission from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS is Peter’s market trend report… I’d love to know what you think. Comments are always welcome.

The Great Recession is over,
but it will take some time to feel over

—By Peter Francese

According to economists at Moody’s Analytics, what is now being referred to as the Great Recession is technically over.  However, the damage from this economic downturn was severe enough that it will take quite a few months until it feels really over to us ordinary people.

There’s a reason this recession has felt so bad:  The economists say it has lasted twice as long and was twice as deep as the average of the past 10 recessions the nation has experienced since 1948.  The New Hampshire economist Dennis Delay, speaking at a recent New England Economic Partnership conference, said that the recession won’t feel like it is over “until unemployment stops climbing and job growth returns.”

New Hampshire’s unemployment rate, which is now 7.2 percent (well below the national average of 10.2 percent) is not forecasted to rise above 7.8 percent before starting to fall sometime next year.  This bodes well for the recovery of New Hampshire’s residential real estate values, which may have already begun to rise.

During the first five months of this year, for example, residential home sales were below last year.  But year-over-year the number of homes sold has risen in four out of the past five months (see Table I below).  Overall, for the first 10 months of 2009 home sales edged up 0.3 percent over the same period last year.

Median home prices statewide were still about 7 percent below October of 2008, but the difference is narrowing from monthly numbers that earlier this year ranged between 10 and 20 percent below 2008.  This trend indicates that home prices in New Hampshire are stabilizing and will likely begin to increase in 2010.

The expanded home buyer tax credits will almost certainly have a positive effect on home sales and values in the next several months.  Also, as home prices stabilize, that will reduce any perceived risk on the part of potential home buyers and encourage lenders to finance more purchases.

New Hampshire has been considerably more fortunate with regard to home prices than many other states.  Median home prices statewide are expected to bottom out in 2010 at between 20 and 25 percent below their 2005 peak.  Given the worst recession in 60 years, that’s really something to be pleased about.  Several other states have seen home prices fall 50 percent or more from their peak in 2005.

Every REALTOR® in our state, as well as every lender or potential home buyer, should know this: The recession is over, but the speed of recovery here depends in large part on the real New Hampshire advantage.  It has certainly mitigated this recession’s bad effects and will be extremely important to our recovery.

Assuming it will be maintained, real estate values will recover more quickly and more solidly than anywhere else in this region, and perhaps most other places in the nation.

Table I shows that residential home sales are likely to be about the same as last year, just above 10,000 units, and at a median sale price that will be within 10 percent of 2008.

Table I shows residential home sales and median sale prices for first 10 months of 2009.

2009
Units sold    % change 2008-09    Median sale price    % change 2008-09
Jan           453                     -15%                           $200,000                        -17%
Feb          505                      -13%                          $184,900                         -20%
Mar         703                         9%                          $200,000                         -14%
Apr          739                      -11%                          $204,900                          -15%
May         881                       -6%                          $210,000                          -13%
Jun        1,151                         1%                          $225,000                          -12%
Jul         1,169                        6%                          $220,000                         -10%
Aug       1,096                        4%                         $222,000                            -7%
Sep           979                      -3%                          $214,900                            -8%
Oct        1,083                       8%                          $210,000                            -7%
YTD      8,857                    0.3%                         $210,000                             -7%

Table II shows that in October, residential unit sales rose above last year’s for seven of the state’s 10 counties, and median sale price increased 9 percent in Belknap County, where nearly one-third of dwelling units are second homes.  Condominium sales were also strong in October, when unit sales jumped 23 percent above October of last year at a median sale price just $100 below last year’s $170,000.

Units sold    % change 2008-09    Median sale price    % change 2008-09
Belknap                 66                       6%                             $192,875                        9%
Carroll                    79                     -2%                             $190,000                    -12%
Cheshire                52                      -2%                            $160,450                       -4%
Coos                       41                        8%                              $89,000                     -11%
Grafton                 76                       19%                             $174,950                       -6%
Hillsborough     283                       10%                            $224,000                      -9%
Merrimack          125                      18%                             $189,000                     -12%
Rockingham       230                       9%                             $255,000                       -4%
Strafford              105                     22%                              $194,900                     -10%
Sullivan                 26                    -40%                              $150,000                      -3%
Statewide          1,083                      8%                             $210,000                        -7%

Source: NNEREN

NH Market Trends report

Southern NH Real Estate is on fire…

This is an interesting article published by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS that was written by Peter Francese. It talks about the aging of New Hampshire and the impact that has on home sales. It also covers April’s NH Market Trend Report. I’m a little bit late on reprinting it for you but trust me when I say the Southern NH real estate market has been very buys! It’s like someone just lit a fire under the real estate market.

Yeah baby …we’re getting older

Our state’s residents are changing, and it may impact home sales
—By Peter Francese
Well, we finally did it. According to the latest Census Bureau estimates, New Hampshire is now tied with Florida for the distinction of being the fourth oldest state in the nation.  Our median age went over 40 years old for the first time ever.

Here’s the 2008 top four lineup: Maine at 42.0, Vermont at 41.2, West Virginia at 40.6 followed by New Hampshire and Florida at 40.2 years old.  New Hampshire’s median age has risen three years since 2000, which is twice the nationwide increase of 1.5 years.

Chart I below shows why this is happening.  From 2000 to 2008, New Hampshire’s total population increased 6 percent, but in the same period the segment 55 to 64 jumped 50 percent, while the number of school-age children ages 5 to 17 declined by 7 percent.

The chart below also shows that an age turnaround may be underway.  The 13 percent rise in the 18 to 29 age group means that, if these young adults stay in New Hampshire, the number of families with children is likely to increase in the future and the state’s median age may stabilize or conceivably fall to a somewhat younger age.

Source: US Census Bureau

These changes may mean an increase in demand for second homes and retirement homes for older residents and starter homes for the youngest families.  But it may mean less demand for trading-up homes because there will be a smaller number of families with older children who sometimes purchase larger or more suitable homes.

Over the next five to 10 years, we could see some Baby Boomer empty-nesters desiring to sell their big homes and buy smaller homes as they approach retirement.  But there’s growing evidence that Baby Boomers will delay retirement, so they may want to keep that larger home and use the extra space for a home office or two.  In any case, overall population growth is most likely to be slower than in past decades.

Survey results and April sales data

Results from the NHAR monthly survey that many of you so kindly fill out show that 42 percent of recent homebuyers were young families and 44 percent of homebuyers were first time homebuyers.  The survey results also show that 30 percent of buyers came from out of state, with a solid majority of those coming from Massachusetts.

The survey also shows that while three-quarters of buyers were purchasing a primary home, about one in four of them were buying a second home or purchasing it for investment purposes.

It’s understandable that investors would be making an appearance considering that the median sales price in April was below $200,000 in eight of 10 NH counties.  But it is also noteworthy that between March and April of this year, the number of homes sold increased in eight counties as well.

Compared to April of 2008, however, residential unit sales are off 11 percent statewide, and median sale price is down 15 percent. (Please see tables below for county detail.)

On a year-to-date basis, homes sold are down just 7 percent compared to last year, but median selling price was 16 percent below the first four months of 2008.

There is substantial variation by county, however.  Compared to 2008 residential unit sales have increased in Belknap, Grafton, Merrimack and Sullivan counties despite declining sales elsewhere.  But the sales in Grafton and Belknap counties came at a sharp discount compared to most other New Hampshire counties.

Table 1:  Residential (non-condo) unit sales for April 2009

Table II: Cumulative residential (non-condo) unit sales January-April 2009

County	Units sold April ‘09	% change 2008-09	Median price April ‘09	% change 2008-09
Belknap	42	8%	$183,500	-27%
Carroll	44	-8%	$177,000	-3%
Cheshire	45	-18%	$167,000	-7%
Coos	20	-38%	$37,450	-54%
Grafton	46	10%	$139,000	-26%
Hillsborough	192	-21%	$221,875	-13%
Merrimack	76	9%	$199,500	-16%
Rockingham	180	-6%	$265,250	-13%
Strafford	60	-24%	$180,500	-17%
Sullivan	34	21%	$126,000	-22%
Statewide	739	-11%	$204,900	-15%

Table II:  Cumulative residential (non-condo) unit sales January-April 2009

County	Units sold Jan-April ‘09	% change 2008-09	Median price Jan-April ‘09	% change 2008-09
Belknap	145	-3%	$167,507	-22%
Carroll	159	-4%	$173,500	-10%
Cheshire	134	-7%	$165,200	-8%
Coos	81	7%	$59,000	-45%
Grafton	147	-7%	$140,000	-30%
Hillsborough	655	-7%	$220,000	-12%
Merrimack	240	-6%	$190,850	-14%
Rockingham	546	-10%	$250,000	-13%
Strafford	211	-10%	$180,000	-17%
Sullivan	96	-2%	$133,250	-17%
Statewide	2,414	-7%	$197,500	-16%

Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network

NH Market Trend report ~ Spring is here, so are the buyers

Spring is definitely here and from my real estate perspective so are buyers!

February and March brought us an increase in activity.  While winter was most definitely cold and dark in my Southern NH real estate world, the heat has been turned on and the sun is shining. Many buyers who have been on the fence have suddenly jumped off and started to do more than simply look at real estate, they’ve started to buy real estate.

Reprinted below is the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS market trend report for Jan and Feb 2009.

Spring is coming, with more buyers
-By Peter Francese

Before we can look forward we have to look back, even if we would rather not.  During the first two months of this year, fewer than 1,000 residential units were sold and year-to-date sales volume ($214 million, not including condominiums) was half of what it was three years ago.  Condominium sales volume ($39 million) was 70 percent lower than in 2006.
Whatever the weather, this could turn out to be the coldest winter on record for New Hampshire Realtors.  We can only imagine how bad it must be in other states where the economy is in so much worse shape than it is here in the Granite State.
Our state has by far the lowest unemployment rate in New England (See Chart I) and one of the 10 lowest rates in the nation.  Our state also has the fourth highest index of economic activity, according to the Federal Reserve (See Chart II).  The problem, in terms of consumer confidence, is that these indicators of the substantially better economic conditions here in New Hampshire are unknown, except for a few savvy real estate investors.
Tables I and II below show the county level details of home sales from NNEREN for the first two months of this year.  But the last column on Chart I also shows a very important indicator: the ratio of median home value to median household income.
Historically that number, which is one measure of general housing affordability, has usually been at 4.0 or below.  When it rises above 4.0, too many buyers are not able to purchase a home.  When it returns to 4.0 or below, it signals a time when many more potential buyers will think that a home they would like to buy is within their reach.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Potential buyers, however, must also have some level of confidence that better economic times are in the near future.  And lenders need to feel more confident, too.  So far, that confidence has not shown itself.  But early believers in its imminent return will be able to buy one, or maybe even two, very reasonably priced homes.
What is important to keep in mind, however, is that the median sales price figures in tables I and II below are very heavily influenced by foreclosed and short sales.  While it is true that home foreclosures are less than one percent of all owned homes in New Hampshire, they can be, and often are, a much larger fraction of all sales in a county, particularly when there are so few transactions.  This distorts the perception of home values.
When the number of foreclosures starts to decline, which it must do fairly soon, then home prices will at least stabilize and lenders will feel more comfortable writing mortgages.  But in the meantime, it would be helpful if we could separate out foreclosure sales from all others.
We can only do that from data collected on the New Hampshire Realtor survey, which you can fill out for each transaction.  So please go to the survey site by clicking here and answer a few quick questions to tell us about your recent sales.  We will report the results next month.

Table I:  Residential (non-condo) unit sales for Feb. 2009 and income/price ratio

County	Units sold	% change	Median price	% change	Income to
	Feb. ‘09	2008-09	Feb. 2009	2008-09	price ratio
Belknap	35	17%	$145,000	-21%	4.1
Carroll	44	26%	$157,450	-20%	4
Cheshire	27	-7%	$159,000	6%	3.3
Coos	14	-26%	$58,500	-53%	2.4
Grafton	23	-48%	$137,000	-31%	3.8
Hillsborough	146	11%	$199,500	-24%	3.7
Merrimack	49	-22%	$187,000	-15%	3.8
Rockingham	103	-31%	$241,000	-15%	3.9
Strafford	45	-20%	$185,000	-13%	3.9
Sullivan	19	-24%	$133,500	-26%	3.6
Statewide	505	-14%	$184,900	-20%	3.8

Table II:  Residential (non-condo) unit sales for first two months of 2009

County	Units sold	% change	Median price	% change2
	YTD ‘09	2008-09	YTD 2009	2008-09
Belknap	59	0%	$160,000	-27%
Carroll	75	7%	$155, 000	-22%
Cheshire	50	-9%	$167,650	12%
Coos	36	20%	$58,000	-54%
Grafton	57	-25%	$140,000	-29%
Hillsborough	274	-1%	$215,000	-16%
Merrimack	88	-36%	$197,950	-10%
Rockingham	193	-29%	$240,000	-16%
Strafford	94	1%	$178,750	-17%
Sullivan	35	-30%	$145,000	-8%
Statewide	961	-14%	$190,000	-19%

Source: NNEREN and US Census Bureau household income estimates

How about a housing stimulus?

December 2008  NH Market Trend Report

With all this talk about government stimulus plans and bail outs I just have to wonder why not a real estate stimulus plan. A housing stimulus… that sounds good to me!

Every one knows that real estate makes the world go around. When people stop buying homes, they stop buying lawn mowers, new carpets and appliances…when that happens the manufacturers cut back and eventually have to lay people off.  It’s a never ending cycle…what real estate does- so does the rest of the world.

It sounds simple I know, but it’s very powerfully true.  So I say if we can’t have a real estate stimulus, I’ll take an attitude stimulus.  I think until we start spreading some good buying news, buyers will just sit on the fence so to speak.  There are so many good buying opportunities in New Hampshire it’s mind boggling.

This months market trends report is reprinted with permission from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS and is ©Copyrighted  by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

How about an attitude stimulus?

-by Peter Francese

It’s awfully hard to sell anything when customers are not in a buying mood. And it’s even harder when virtually every talking head on TV is telling us how awful things will be for the U.S. economy in 2009. Maybe what we need is an attitude stimulus.

We probably have enough monetary stimulus. Between $700 billion for banks and maybe $825 billion for the rest of us, combined with the lowest mortgage interest rates we’ve ever seen, one might think that would be enough to buy an attitude adjustment. We’ll see.

In the meantime, New Hampshire REALTORS can take heart in the durability of the many advantages our state enjoys and know for sure that when the national economy does turn up, New Hampshire will be one of the first out of the tank.

With full knowledge that mere facts rarely change attitudes, here are a few things that set New Hampshire apart:

The December 2008 unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in New Hampshire, compared to 6.7 nationally and 6.2 percent in New England.

The job growth rate from November 2007 to November 2008 was up 0.6 percent in New Hampshire, compared to negative-1.4 percent nationally and negative-0.6 percent in New England.

New Hampshire’s median family income is $74,600, fifth highest in the nation.

Thirty-year mortgage interest rates are drifting below 5 percent and, as Realtor Fred Doleac from Amherst has pointed out, the FHA is offering extraordinarily favorable terms for first-time home buyers with weak credit scores, including a $7,500 tax credit.

None of this may be enough to put potential home buyers in a better mood right away, but as soon as the weather warms up I think more of them will emerge and realize that excellent terms are being offered and that they can now afford a home.

Until then, all we can do is look back at last year’s results with a heavy heart and anticipate that, with some help from our friends in Washington, this year will be an improvement. If so, it’ll be the first up year for home sales in four years. We’re due.

New Hampshire REALTORS sold almost 10,200 residential homes in 2008 and about 2,750 condominiums. Residential sales were down 15 percent, and the median home price of $235,000 was 10 percent below the 2007 median. Condominium sales were 34 percent below 2007, and their median sales price of $180,000 was 5 percent below 2007.

Residential unit sales last year were 37 percent below their peak in 2005, but condo sales were less than half of what they were in 2005. Interviews with several REALTORS suggest that it’s been much harder to sell a condo unit when an identical unit nearby is in foreclosure or when the seller is under water. One reason for these problems: More condos than residential units were purchased within the past five years.

In the table below, note the percent change in unit sales from 2007 to 2008. What we can see is that while sales declined in every county, there was considerable variation between counties. While sales declined the least last year in Cheshire and Coos, median home prices dropped the most in those two counties. Almost half of all sales statewide took place in Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties, where the median values were the highest for the year.

County	2008 units sold	% change 2007-08	2008 median $	% change 2007-08	Dec. ‘08 median $	% change 2007-08
Belknap	597	-18%	$220,000	-8%	$230,000	16%
Carroll	649	-12%	$205,000	-10%	$180,000	-7%
Cheshire	624	-10%	$180,000	-13%	$164,000	-16%
Coos	302	-10%	$100,000	-13%	$85,500	-14%
Grafton	654	-25%	$195,000	-11%	$205,000	-9%
Hillsborough	2,745	-13%	$249,000	-10%	$225,000	-15%
Merrimack	1,069	-22%	$224,900	-10%	$178,100	-17%
Rockingham	2,291	-11%	$285,000	-10%	$259,900	-11%
Strafford	892	-18%	$219,450	-10%	$200,000	-16%
Sullivan	360	-25%	$171,663	-10%	$155,000	-6%
Statewide	10,183	-15%	$235,000	-10%	$212,500	-14%

Rockingham County Real Estate Trends report

Let’s look back over the past 15 months.

Rockingham County Trends report covering the period of Oct 2007 to Dec 2008. I think it’s interesting to track the real estate market, to see where we’ve been and to try and see where we’re going. This report covers  Rockingham County but I will also  be breaking it down into the individual town levels as well.

*All reports are published Jan. 2009, based on data available at the end of Dec. 2008.
All reports presented are based on data supplied by the Massachussets Real Estate and New Hampshire Real Estate or their MLS. Neither the Associations nor their MLSs guarantee or are in anyway responsible for their accuracy. Data maintained by the Associations or their MLSs may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

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